Crisis management for your portfolio
The end of the bullish cycle is hard to predict and when it occurs, your long positions usually suffer a big percentage drop. That single drop may eat away as much as a third of your accumulated gain, and your emotions run high. What should you do to outperform others when the market shifts? Should […]
Full StoryThe competitiveness of the CAPM
What is the best investment approach to your portfolios? Do you need to diversify your portfolio? Is buy-and-hold preferable to active timing? Should you hedge the market exposures? Portfolio management is key to achieving your investment goal and it’s important to understand what risk and return you would likely to get before sticking to one […]
Full Story“Sell into strength” is the best thing to do now..
On 11/18/07, I gave my price target for SPY (S&P 500 ETF) at merely 134.76 (see post “S&P 500 rich“). My conclusion was that “The low price target reflects the technical richness in the market after the 3-month-rally (since mid-August) and the rising risk premium indicated by comparable bonds since October.” Since then, the market […]
Full StoryInvestment opportunities — balancing the risk with the reward
Check out the new valuation target for Google, Comcast, Apple, Microchip, Ibm, Yahoo, Macrovision, Multi-fineline Electronics, Gaylord, Epiq Systems, Disney, EMC, GM, Republic Airways, KMG Chemicals, Syntax Brillian, AZZ, and Focus Media….
Full StoryWhy is the stock dis-oriented? — the noise in the CAPM theory
More often than not, your stocks waste a lot of time moving nowhere. Time is money, and it’s important to know when will the stock start to perform? To answer that, you need to understand where does the return come from?
The return of the stock is typically estimated by the CAPM theory, which says:
Stock price […]
Where is the bottom of Mvsn?
Today’s news “Macrovision to buy Gemstar for $2.8 billion” set the price to a free fall.
Full StoryEmerging markets local instruments valuation ($)
Trade ideas and rich/cheap valuations for EM local debts: countries include Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, and Turkey.
Full StoryQuestions at different moments that determine your investment returns and the suggested valuation approaches
Before you make investment decisions, be prepared to answer these questions:
Full StoryEmerging markets sovereign debts valuation ($)
Trade ideas and rich/cheap valuations for EM sovereign debts and CDS: countries include Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Panama, Peru,
Uruguay, Venezuela, UMS, Russia, Philippines, Indonesia, Ukraine, and Turkey.
Investment opportunities
Will Google and Apple move higher from now? How much? Will companies with weak 3Q earnings like GM continue to trend lower? Are there any stocks that are cheap and with stable earnings? Find out my picks and their backtest results.
Full StoryPricing methodology
The valuation uses three finance concepts:
Full StoryIncreasing sensitivity of prices to earnings disappointments
How will large caps, mid caps, small caps, and distressed sectors react differently to earnings disappointments? How much price drop should you expect within a week — 10%, 20%, 30%, or 40%?
Full StoryGrowth stocks priced-in higher growth
Are growth stocks too expensive to buy now? See their rich/cheap valuations since beginning of the year.
Full StoryS&P 500 rich
See why the November selloff should be worse than the mid-summer selloff.
Full StoryWill the market gear up or gear down - introducing the Gear-array charting tool
