Crisis management for your portfolio

The end of the bullish cycle is hard to predict and when it occurs, your long positions usually suffer a big percentage drop. That single drop may eat away as much as a third of your accumulated gain, and your emotions run high. What should you do to outperform others when the market shifts? Should […]

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The competitiveness of the CAPM

What is the best investment approach to your portfolios? Do you need to diversify your portfolio? Is buy-and-hold preferable to active timing? Should you hedge the market exposures? Portfolio management is key to achieving your investment goal and it’s important to understand what risk and return you would likely to get before sticking to one […]

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“Sell into strength” is the best thing to do now..

On 11/18/07, I gave my price target for SPY (S&P 500 ETF) at merely 134.76 (see post “S&P 500 rich“). My conclusion was that “The low price target reflects the technical richness in the market after the 3-month-rally (since mid-August) and the rising risk premium indicated by comparable bonds since October.” Since then, the market […]

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Investment opportunities — balancing the risk with the reward

Check out the new valuation target for Google, Comcast, Apple, Microchip, Ibm, Yahoo, Macrovision, Multi-fineline Electronics, Gaylord, Epiq Systems, Disney, EMC, GM, Republic Airways, KMG Chemicals, Syntax Brillian, AZZ, and Focus Media….

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Why is the stock dis-oriented? — the noise in the CAPM theory

More often than not, your stocks waste a lot of time moving nowhere. Time is money, and it’s important to know when will the stock start to perform? To answer that, you need to understand where does the return come from?
The return of the stock is typically estimated by the CAPM theory, which says:
Stock price […]

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Where is the bottom of Mvsn?

Today’s news “Macrovision to buy Gemstar for $2.8 billion” set the price to a free fall.

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Emerging markets local instruments valuation ($)

Trade ideas and rich/cheap valuations for EM local debts: countries include Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, and Turkey.

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Questions at different moments that determine your investment returns and the suggested valuation approaches

Before you make investment decisions, be prepared to answer these questions:

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Emerging markets sovereign debts valuation ($)

Trade ideas and rich/cheap valuations for EM sovereign debts and CDS: countries include Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Panama, Peru,
Uruguay, Venezuela, UMS, Russia, Philippines, Indonesia, Ukraine, and Turkey.

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Investment opportunities

Will Google and Apple move higher from now? How much? Will companies with weak 3Q earnings like GM continue to trend lower? Are there any stocks that are cheap and with stable earnings? Find out my picks and their backtest results.

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Pricing methodology

The valuation uses three finance concepts:

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Increasing sensitivity of prices to earnings disappointments

How will large caps, mid caps, small caps, and distressed sectors react differently to earnings disappointments? How much price drop should you expect within a week — 10%, 20%, 30%, or 40%?

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Growth stocks priced-in higher growth

Are growth stocks too expensive to buy now? See their rich/cheap valuations since beginning of the year.

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S&P 500 rich

See why the November selloff should be worse than the mid-summer selloff.

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Will the market gear up or gear down - introducing the Gear-array charting tool

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